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April 15, 2025
Dow: 40,500
S&P: 5405
Nasdaq: 16,826
10-YR T-Note: 4.36%
Bitcoin: 85,264
VIX: 29.76
Gold: $3,237
Crude Oil: 61.00
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
The market gained for the second day in a row for the Dow since March 25 and for the same amount for the S&P and Nasdaq since April 2, but both finished well of their best intraday highs.
The Dow ended with a gain of 312 to 40,524 led by advances in AAPL, AMGN, GS after earnings, and MCD. The S&P added 42 after being up by a huge 96 points and ended at 5406 as some technology stocks like AAPL, DELL and NFLX did better along with some Chinese issues like BABA and BIDU.
The Nasdaq gained 107 to 16,831 as COST plus other techs as mentioned above gained after having been ahead by 412 while the Russell 2000 Index got dragged along for 20 to 1880 and the VIX fell back to 30.89 and remember that it got as high as 60 during the depths of last week’s collapse.
These gains took place after the President relaxed some of his tariffs, for now at least and the stress from within the U.S. bond market eased a bit yesterday as well.
AAPL and other technology companies helped lift things after Trump said he was exempting smartphones, computers and other electronics from some of his stiff tariffs, which could ultimately more than double prices for U.S. customers of products coming from China. Such an exemption would mean U.S. importers don’t have to choose between passing on the higher costs to their customers or taking a hit to their own profits.
Automakers also rallied after Trump suggested he may announce some relief from tariffs in the auto industry and F and GM rose as well.
But such relief may ultimately prove fleeting. Trump’s tariff rollout has been full of fits and starts, and officials in his administration said this most recent exemption on electronics is only temporary.
That could keep uncertainty high for companies, which are trying to make long-term plans when conditions seem to change by the day. Such uncertainty sent the U.S. stock market last week to chaotic and historical swings, as investors struggled to catch up with Trump’s moves on tariffs, which could ultimately lead to a recession if not reduced.
China’s commerce ministry nevertheless welcomed the pause on electronics tariffs in a Sunday statement as a small step even as it called for the U.S. to completely cancel the rest of its tariffs. China’s leader Xi Jinping on Monday said no one wins in a trade war as he began a diplomatic tour of Southeast Asia, hoping to present China as a force for stability in contrast with Trump’s frenetic moves on tariffs.
GS rose after reporting a stronger profit for the latest quarter than expected. It joined other big banks in doing so, such as JPM and MS.
Perhaps more encouragingly, the bond market also showed signs of increasing calm. Treasury yields eased following their sudden and scary rise last week, which seemed to rattle not only investors but also Trump.
Treasury yields usually drop when fear is high in the market because U.S. government bonds have historically been seen as some of the world’s safest investments, if not the safest. But last week, yields rose sharply for Treasury bonds in an unusual move. The value of the U.S. dollar also fell against other currencies in another move suggesting investors may no longer see the United States as the best place to keep their cash during moments of stress.
Trump noted the moves in the bond market, which suggested investors “were getting a little queasy,” after he announced a 90-day pause on many of his tariffs last week.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury eased back to 4.37%. It had jumped to 4.48% on Friday from 4.01% the week before.
Yields sank after the bond market got an encouraging update on expectations for inflation among U.S. consumers. While U.S. households raised their expectations for inflation in the year ahead, their expectations for inflation three and five years in the future were either unchanged or lower, according to a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
That is potentially good news for the Federal Reserve, which hates to see fast-rising expectations for longer-term inflation. Such expectations could kick off a feedback loop that drives behavior among consumers that only worsens inflation.
The value of the U.S. dollar, though, remained under pressure. It slipped against the euro and Japanese yen, while inching higher against the Canadian dollar.
In stock markets abroad, indexes climbed 2.4% in France, 2.9% in Germany, 1.2% in Japan and 1% in South Korea.
In China, stock indexes rose 2.4% in Hong Kong and 0.8% in Shanghai after the government reported that China’s exports surged 12.4% in March from a year earlier in a last-minute flurry of activity as companies rushed to beat increases in U.S. tariffs.
Earnings this week will see: yesterday – GS higher; today – BAC, C, ASML, PNC higher, Dow component JNJ lower; tonight - IBKR, JBHT, UAL; Wednesday – Dow component TRV plus AA, CSX, ABT USB; Thursday – Dow components AXP, UNH plus BLK, SCH, NFLX.
Economic reports will have: today – March import prices fell by 0.1%, NY State Empire Fed Manufacturing Survey fell by 8.1; Wednesday – March retail sales, March industrial production and capacity utilization; Thursday – weekly jobless claims, March housing starts.
