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April 1, 2025
Dow: 41,802
S&P: 5590
Nasdaq: 17,243
10-YR T-Note: 4.16%
Bitcoin: 84,017
VIX: 22.49
Gold: $3,163
Crude Oil: 71.62
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
In one of the truly most astounding days of the many we have seen recently, the major indices turned huge opening losses into solid gains as things got better as the day moved ahead. The gains were so astounding that from bottom to top, the moves were as huge as we have seen in quite a while.
For instance, the Dow began with a 435 point collapse and ended higher by 417 point to 42,001 as AAPL of all things, led the charge higher, in addition to SHW, HD, MCD, UNH and V.
The S&P started out with a hard to believe 92 pint collapse and turned that into a closing advance of 31 up to 5611 led by some technology former leaders and the usual gains in energy and financial issues.
The Nasdaq started out 469 point down and cut that loss to “only” 23 to 17,299 as not enough large cap techs were able to join the upside turnaround, as NVDA, MSFT, AMZN and TSLA continued their weak overall patterns. Meanwhile the Russell 2000 Index of small stocks was never able to get positive as it ended down 11 to 2011 while the VIX was able to cut its opening gain of 24.80 to 22.68.
The approach of the so-called “Liberation Day” on Wednesday helped the S&P shave its loss for the first-quarter of 2025 to 4.6%, and this made it the worst quarter in two and a half years.
Such neck-twisting turns have become routine for the U.S. stock market recently because of uncertainty about what Trump will do with tariffs, and by how much they will worsen inflation and grind down growth for economies. The moves here followed a sell-off that spanned the world earlier Monday as worries built about the effects of the tariffs that Trump says will bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 index dropped 4%. South Korea’s Kospi sank 3%, and France’s CAC 40 fell 1.6%.
Instead of stocks, prices strengthened for things considered safer bets when the economy is looking shaky. Gold rose again to briefly hit $3,160 per ounce.
Prices for Treasury bonds also climbed, which in turn sent their yields down. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.21% from 4.27% late Friday and from roughly 4.80% in January.
On Wednesday, the United States is set to begin what Trump calls “ reciprocal” tariffs, which will be tailored to match what he sees is the burden each country places on his, including things like value-added taxes. Much is still unknown, including exactly what the U.S. government will do on “Liberation Day.”
One of the more prominent brokerages said that they now see a 35% chance of recession in the next year, up from an earlier forecast of 20%, “reflecting our lower growth forecast, falling confidence, and statements from White House officials indicating willingness to tolerate economic pain.”
If the April 2nd tariffs end up being less onerous than investors fear as if Trump includes no additional tariff increases on China, for example — stocks could rally. But if they end up being a worst-case scenario, which gets businesses so fearful that they start cutting their work forces, stocks could sink further.
Of course, there is also the chance that April 2nd does little to clear the uncertainty. It could end up being a “stepping stone for further negotiations” instead of a “clearing event” for the market, according to another major brokerage house.
Stocks showing weakness were the biotech stocks, on the removal of a top scientist from the Health and Human Resources Department and the travel stocks, including cruise liners also fell on the perception of consumer anxiety and shrinking travel budgets.
One worry is that even if Trump’s tariffs end up being less harsh than feared, all the uncertainty created by them alone could cause U.S. households and businesses to cut their spending, which would hurt an economy that had been running at a solid pace to close last year.
On the winning side was COOP, which jumped 15% after the home loan servicer said it is being bought by mortgage company RKT in an all-stock deal valued at $9.4 billion. The deal comes just weeks after it acquired real estate listing company RDFN.
NMAX surged 735% in a dizzying first day of trading for the stock of the news company. Its price was so volatile that trading of its stock was briefly halted a dozen times through the day.
Earnings this week will have: today – PVH higher; Wednesday – RH; Thursday – CAG.
Economic reports will see: yesterday – March Chicago P.M.I. came in at 47.6; today – February construction spending rose by 0.7% February JOLTS job openings settled at 7.57 million, March ISM Manufacturing Survey dipped to 49 but the prices paid index rose to 69.4 which was the highest since June 2022; Wednesday – February factory orders; Thursday – February trade balance, weekly jobless claims; Friday – March nonfarm payrolls report which is expected to show 125,000, down from 151,000 and the unemployment rate, up to 4.2%, up from 4.1%.
